Had an excellent conversation today with some colleagues about some long-term doubtful, short-term optimistic energy demand figures & estimates from the IESO.
At a time when unplanned additional millions are being poured into assets serving large-scale electricity nodes (in order to increase capacity, no less; e.g. the recent tunnel debacle in Niagara), it’s important to consider the question of why the energy demand in Ontario is currently decreasing – and, notably, expected to kind of even out towards 2011, according the the IESO’s messaging.
I suggested to a friend that this might be a sign that the “culture of conservation” is really taking hold in Ontario. After some discussion we agreed – though I still cling to my optimisms – that an awfully large part of this short-term “successful” demand management we’re seeing is due to the auto industry’s series of lapses. Across the province we’re seeing the last of this truck roll off such and such an assembly line. Workers, ashen-faced, kiss goodbye to their securities.
What’s the connection here? (no pun intended…) Two truths are relevant to the dilemma at hand:
- An auto assembly plant requires insane amounts of energy and much of this is electric.
- By virtue of path dependency, environmental/efficiency retrofits are an arduous process and economically a hard hit for a manufacturing firm operating heavy industrial sites like the assembly plants we see run by car companies here in the province.
So auto plants are closing their doors, and resultantly their gargantuan electricity consumption levels have declined, having a serious impact on provincial demand figures. What happens when the plants reopen those doors? (Some would say what happens “if” those doors reopen…)
The answers are certain to vary. The IESO boss has faith that there is some sort of restructuring going on. Some are a bit more skeptical – it’s tough for a big auto plant to “become green” as, say, a commercial printers or a Shopper’s Drug Mart might.
Me, personally? I agree with him. I think that if auto makers are going to survive, they’re going to need to endure the pain of making facilities more demand-conscious, if only to optimize their bottom line to keep these firms out of the red.
Best to read over the facts in that release and maybe check out some of the articles from today and yesterday – there was an excellent one in the Toronto Star if I correctly recall. What’s your call – recessionary desperation, or conservation ingenuity?